OK, understand why people don’t feel like falling over themselves to thank all and sundry at the moment but I’m a little surprised at the degree of negativity.
Things haven’t gone great and there has been huge frustration of course, but the reality is shareholders are lucky their shares are worth anything more than zero coming out the other side of that suspension. There were far worse scenarios on the cards than what was announced.
Magna seems to be absent and needs to provide more explanations? If we didn’t have a cornerstone shareholder willing to step in and lend money, no doubt with the specific aim of keeping CBA from pulling the pin, it would be game over. Whether the company was/is being run by accident or design for the benefit of a single shareholder may still be a justifiable open question in people’s minds. Who knows how magna v non-magna holders fare in all of this in the wash up. But so far, Magna is a major reason you still have shares worth anything more than lunch money.
The Magna/CBA combo has now gotten Patersons to put their name to this SPP. Considering the reputation damage done to Ord Minnett from a past raising, former management that has left the business (really? we want to swap CEOs? are you serious?), and even the recent raising under water at 13c – it’s amazing any equity underwriter is willing to go near this – no matter what the terms.
So overall, far from complete doom and gloom, this finance package says to me that considerable effort has been gone to by key stakeholders, including management, to keep all shareholders still in the game. Of course future performance isn't guaranteed but I would be incredulous if CCU has got their finance package this far advanced, only to not deliver on their production forecasts/statements made today.
And re the failure to raise in Dec – maybe management weren’t confident enough in the short term production outlook (with good reason as it turns out) to make representations about this as part of a raise. Maybe short term loans from Magna and rolling loans from CBA was a solution to buy time before either trading their way out or getting to do a raise with ongoing support from those parties at a point in the future (which has happened). Was this really an amateurish course of action?
Anyway – perfect timing now for Systematic28 to make an appearance.
Fourdollars has called it better recently S28. But now a number of stakeholders have ‘gone over the top’ with today’s announcement - are you prepared to stick your head above the parapet and endorse this thing??!!
CCU Price at posting:
8.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
