not one post today on tox/hit 10c, page-39

re: defabstar Spot on Woy Woy

Sep qtr EBITDA was $950k. Therefore on an annualised basis, that equates to $3.8m EBITDA assuming no growth at all. Given the conservative attitude adopted by TOX management in previous profit forecasts, you could assume that they would increase their profit forecast to $3.8m EBITDA for the operations at Kwinana at Port Headland.

The Delvex acquisition is expected to generate $500k EBITDA + $250k in synergies. Expect TOX to assume that synergies will not be genrated for the first six months (even though some will automatically exist) and TOX to announce an increase in $250k in operating profit for the entity.

$500k has already been booked from the sale of the tank cleaning business.

Therefore the most conservative estimate TOX will announce is $3.8m + 250k + 500k = $4.55million.

They may slightly round that down to $4.5m given their conservative nature.

This will allow a provision for another profit upgrade after the March quarter.

It is highly credible for management to be conservative in their estimates and it will ultimately lead to the market revaluing TOX's profit forecast up prior to TOX actually making the announcement themselves.

Mind you a $4.5m EBITDA profit forcastr would not include

the possible upgrade to TDU ,
upgrade to the kiln management system,
increases in operating efficiencies at their plants,
other possible acquisitions/JV entered into this financial year and
synergies to be generated from the acquisition of Delvex.

I reckon after the March qtr, there will be another profit forecast upgrade to $5m EBITDA but lets see shall we.............:)

Cheers and happy new year to all :)