ree prices in 2014, page-19

Thnx Tonio, agree 40% looks too high, I would make an uninformed guess circa 20% for tolling, by suite value. No doubt expressed as $kg, which may make Y the "Ce" of HRE. Put the Q to Lifton so will be interesting to see if he picks it up.

Divergence of opinion by the "experts" is quite interesting ATM, particularly re Dy & phosphors suite.
Lifton & Hatch seem beguiled by the guy behind the Adamas Report who believes LED will create the same phosphors demand as CFL despite all other evidence to the contrary plus competition from OLED and other zero phosphors apps. Moly & Lynas both report uncertain phosphors demand and I note China is running at 22% capacity in the phosphors segment as against 40/50% capacity for the other major demand segments.
Kingsnorth made his 2016 call immediately after a trip to SE Asia and an excerpt from Moly's Q4 2012 Earnings Call transcript re their Neo division probably provides the rationalisation, both in bonded & sintered formats. Pages 6 & 7: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1275811-molycorps-ceo-discusses-q4-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=6
Lynas appear to be more bullish Dy but as a function of overall magnet demand with far more selective & efficient usage.
As usual with these things the reality may end up anywhere but what is apparent is there has been considerable shift in tech & application that the investment side, certainly popular comment, does not seem to have grasped. One of the better examples in the Ucore PEA which contains the rather stunning figures of 889tpa Dy production at the fantasy price of $845.80kg. Pages 22-3 & 22-5 http://ucore.com/documents/PEA.pdf
How on (rare) earth could they project that figure, let alone at that volume entering the market, yet I note the Alaskan Govt is debating a $145M financing package on the strength of it!
As always, there will always be room for the low cost producer and NTU certainly has the best set of numbers on paper, by some margin, but on balance it would seem likely there will be a very different demand profile & price point than many envisage. Perhaps some caution would be a good idea when extrapolating prices out to gross earnings.
Would be great to see NTU lead the pack, and their numbers are certainly more robust than all their northern peers as far as I can see.