2 lines of coke & 3 hookers, page-17

upside and downside My per share analysis is as follows - if we assume that:
- a No decision would take CAZ back to $0.30c (and hopefully it won’t be quite so bad) - ie $1.30 downside on current price of $1.60
- a Yes decision would take CAZ to $4 immediately (hopefully that is conservative - potentially much higher in the longer term) - ie $2.40 upside on current price

Then, on an after tax basis, compared with selling now (and paying full CGT on current gains) for me that is a $2.00 upside or a 65c downside (after tax) – ie weighted 3:1 to the upside – with considerable further upside potential.

Once you factor in a probability of a positive outcome that is substantially better than 50:50, it’s a no brainer (or perhaps I have no brains).

That's my opinion - you there nay sayers: where do you disagree???

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