sdl should go with europe , page-2

Hi Jisoch, I think a lot of SDL holders would love a European deal or a non-Chinese deal for that matter.

However, money talks loudest.

The NDRC strategic IO policy targetting what could only be Mlabam-Nabeba (in terms of BUYING a large-scale world-class resource with consolidation benefit to unleash a large enough volume of supply to address the supply security issue and CRUCIALLY where the Chinese are allowed to build, own and operate the entire supply-chain) is acutally not just what it appears....as powerful a message as it is coming from a economic superpower with $4 trillion in the kitty and growing by $4.5B every 36 hours (based on 2013 rate of growth of China's foreign exchange reserves).

The NDRC message tells me (we all have the right to our own interpretation) that China MUST win and WILL win. It's that simple.

Now, what sort of money are we looking at ??

(IMO) As there is no room for error on China's part (losing the exclusivity and having to unceremoniously scuttle the Hanlong bid haunts China badly), I think the Chinese will fork out 30% above and beyond what she thinks is the next most formidable competitor's upper threshold.

In other words, what is the price that would start to make the investment marginal (for a commercial competitor valuing a $21/T lowest globally cost asset with amazing ROI) or a killer-punch premium YET on top (for Indian interests whose objectives are beyond commercial considerations and would be backed by the Indian ministry of finance perhpas partly fiannced by Tokyo - as per the 7 member consortium with $10B earmarked for an Afghan IO project that just pulled out of Afghanistan - presumably they are looking at a world-class asset elsewhere).

Good luck to Sundance holders !