xjo - weekend charting and chat, page-20

There could be some downside next week in Oz from poor data from China

"China exports drop unexpectedly, create deficit


By William Kazer

China's exports unexpectedly fell 18.1% in February from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of $22.98 billion for the month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Saturday.

The export tally compared with January's 10.6% rise and was far worse than the median forecast of economists calling for a 5% expansion. " - from Marketwatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-exports-drop-unexpectedly-create-deficit-2014-03-08

Some views about about the state of the US market

1. "Money Managers Aren’t Paid to Forecast; They’re Paid to Adapt - By Chris Puplava 03/05/2014 "

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/money-managers-not-paid-forecast-paid-adapt

2. " Mid-term Election Cycle Forecasts April Market Peak
By Chris Puplava03/07/2014"

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/mid-term-election-cycle-forecasts-april-market-peak

3. "Technician Ralph Acampora: This Bull Market Is Going Higher - Also, Ryan Puplava, Erik Townsend and Chris Puplava
Big Picture03/08/2014

Jim welcomes back noted technician Ralph Acampora, Director of Tactical Investments at Altaira Wealth Management. Ralph believes that the bull market will continue to climb a wall of worry and move higher. He notes two characteristics of all bull markets; low inflation and low interest rates, which are still in place. Ralph also thinks the institutions are driving this market, and the public is not really in this market yet."

Audio - Ralph A from 15.15 minutes into recording.

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/ralph-acampora/bull-market-going-higher

4. "Enter the Inter - By Ryan Puplava CMT03/07/2014"

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ryan-puplava/enter-inter

5. "Stocks: October 2007 vs. March 2014 - By Chris Ciovacco03/07/2014"

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-ciovacco/stocks-october-2007-vs-march-2014

6. "Secular Bull and Bear Markets - By Doug Short -
March 3, 2014 (Monthly Update)"

This is a longer term perspective of where the US market may be

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Secular-Bull-and-Bear-Markets.php

The main headwinds I see for the the US markets are the aging demographics, that profits as a percentage of GDP are at a historical high point (how will reversion to the mean be achieved over time), high level of borrowings will constrain consumption, average incomes are not growing, jobs being created at lower pay and for part time workers. Positive factors are continued innovation, increasing energy self sufficiency, falling balance of payments deficit and reducing Federal govnut deficit, and FED support for the market. The US market will continue to attract funds from overseas because they have a lot of the great international brands and their market is seen as a relative safehaven by investors in emerging economies.

S&P500 at 2500, or bust in the next 3 year. Gold back to USD1500 this year on the back of continued economic growth in Chindia/Moslem countries and the removal/reduction of imposts on gold imports after May elections in India.

Black Swan event - Chinese financial system cacks itself (and the consequences kick OZ in its collective butt).

loki