Agree with your observations because they are based on simple facts, i.e., empirical evidence.
'All this is getting around to saying that I'm a simple-minded goldbug who imagines that excessive debt and laxity will destroy a currency regardless of whether deflation or inflation applies.'
The above statement is correct, but only if one believes that GFC is a PERMANENT shock to the financial and economic system resulting in extreme deflation/extreme inflation.
I would argue the exact opposite - instability breeds stability, which is a process, not an event.
'However, I don't know when, so I'm trying to detect the imminence of any escalations in instability.
I view 'imminence and escalation' of instability as a test to the system. The short term outcome of a test (shock) to the system is not predetermined, it is always uncertain.
The only certainty is that people always overreact to 'crisis' events.
'I imagine that's a less lofty aim than yours.'
The biggest lesson I learned from a period of 'crisis' was that individual responsibility means being responsible for others.
