flappy birds on mbe platform!, page-67

Hi Skiver

Thanks for your input on MBE, its great to hear your perspective. You sound like you have some industry knowledge. After the AGM I had a long chat with one of the directors and have since spoken to them a few times to clarify my understanding of the company. Some of the topics discussed were relevant to your post. I have always found them open and willing to answer any questions.

I want to respond to your excellent post because I think that I can add some further understanding:

These points are from Skivers post, my responses in capitals.

1. From a purely technical standpoint, there is a very strong possibility that we are going to see a large climb up to low 40c. I made this call 3 weeks ago, check out my posts. All the signals are in place for this climb now. It could happen by this Friday or rollover to the next week.I think it is most likely to have a high volume day in a couple of days and have a high thursday/friday breaking 30c. EVERY TIME I MENTION THE SHARE PRICE TO THEM THEY SAY THAT THEY ARE BUILDING A BUSINESS AND THEY ARE NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE SHARE PRICE; THE SHARE PRICE WILL REFLECT THE RESULTS THEY ACHIEVE. KIND OF FRUSTRATING BUT I COMMEND THEM FOR FOCUSSING ON THE BUSINESS AND NOT THE SHARE PRICE.

2. This rise is not just manipulation. In fact it is supported by the developments in the company and with anticipation of further news. It is maintaining a very stable pattern so far and the 50MA is very consistent. AGREED

3. There will always be competition and this is clearly outlined in all annual announcements and shareholder presentations. This should not come as news to any potential investors. To think that there is no competition is not only naive but also ridiculous. There are a whole lot of other risks outlined like market forces etc. DYOR. AGREED

4. It is common knowledge that we are in the infancy of mobile internet and content consumption and there are established advertising companies in the market with impressive portfolios and client lists. However like the infancy of the internet and desktop media consumption, there were established market leaders that could not move with the market. At the same time, there were smaller players that worked towards a goal and moved with the market with clear goals and purpose. While there is a possibility that MBE could be either the former or the latter, I strongly believe that they are the latter. AGREED

5. I'm not saying that MBE is without its flaws. They have a shocking investors relations and market update profile. Their website is also outdated and not at all optimised for mobile. AFAIK, they are not very savvy with marketing themselves. THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING. THEY ARE VERY AWARE THAT THERE ARE MANY PLAYERS IN THE INDUSTRY (ADVERTISING AND MOBILE TECH)THAT ARE WATCHING THEIR EVERY MOVE AND THEY DO NOT WANT TO HELP OR MAKE IT EASY FOR THEIR OPPOSITION. MARKETING THEMSELVES TO US MIGHT ( DOUBTFUL IMHO) HELP THE SHARE PRICE BUT MIGHT ALSO ALERT THE OPPOSITION TO EXACTLY WHAT THEY ARE DOING EARLIER THAN ABSOLUTELY NECESSARRY. I THINK THEY ARE VERY SAVVY AT MARKETING THEMSELVES TO THE MOBILE CARRIERS, IE: OPTUS, TELSTRA, SPRINT , SINGTEL. THEY ARE WORKING ON GETTING THE BEST DIGITAL PRODUCTS INTO THEIR RANGE AND THIS COMBINED FOCUS WILL EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE PROFITS.
3 PRODUCTS X 20MILLION HANDSETS =$20MILL TURNOVER(FY14 AUS ONLY)
3 PRODUCTS X 500 MILLION = $??????? ( AUS +SPRINT+SINGTEL)
10 PRODUCTS X 700 MILLION = $?????? ( AUS+USA+SINGTEL)

DONT MENTION EUROPE, CHINA, JAPAN ETC

6. MBE are working hard. They are making progress and have achieved tremendous growth. If this continues, there is no doubt that the SP will adjust to reflect this. With that in mind, you have to question how long until the ASX realises the company's potential. AGREED, PROBABLY AT THE NEXT QUARTERLY WHEN PROFIT HAS INCREASED AGAIN OR THERE IS SOME NEW OS DEAL OR INCOME.

7. The market is probably waiting for broker coverage before we see a significant rerate (past the 40c point). The right broker coverage will undoubtedly raise market confidence. IF THE PROFITABILITY INCREASES THEN THIS WILL RERATE WITHOUT BROKERS. WHO DO YOU THINK IS BUYING THIS? THE BROKERS ARE PROBABLY BUYING FOR THEMSELVES, PRIVATE CLIENTS AND THEIR FAMILIES AND WHEN THEY HAVE ENOUGH THEY WILL BUY FOR THEIR FUNDS, AND THEN THEY WILL TELL THE MARKET. THE MANAGEMENT OF MBE DO NOT BELIEVE IN PAYING FOR BROKER COVERAGE AND THEY DO NOT DESPERATELY NEED CASH RIGHT NOW. I LIKE THEIR ATTITUDE. BROKER COVERAGE CAN ONLY ENHANCE MY WORTH NOW, BUT IF IT IS NOT SUSTAINED BY PROFITABILITY IT WILL JUST FLUCTUATE AND END UP AT THE SAME POINT AT SOME STAGE ANYWAY.

8. MBE have to announce a few big things like the Singtel Products and the OS revenue. How these announcements are going to influence the SP will be at best marginal. MARGINAL?? I THINK ANY SNIFF OF OS REVENUE WILL REALLY SET THIS ALIGHT IMHO. THEY HAVE JUST SECURED ACCESS TO A MARKET >20 TIMES THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET AND WE ARE ALL ON EDGE WAITING TO SEE HOW THEY TURN THIS INTO REVENUE. JUST A WIFF AND THIS WILL GO BALLISTIC. HOW ARE THEY GOING TO INFORM THE MARKET IF THEY START ACHIEVING OS REVENUE; THEY WILL HAVE TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL HOW AND WHEN THEY REPORT THIS.

9. I say that because until we hit the 150m-200m threshold I predict that we will continue to see this pattern in the chart. Don;t get me wrong, the fundamentals are not going unnoticed, they definitely support the sp. AGREED UNLESS THEY REPORT OS REVENUE THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF AND HOLDING ON TO YOUR LAZY-BOY THAT HAS JUST TURNED INTO A ROCKET WILL BE TRICKY ……….BUT FUN!!!

I love your work skiver and I am sure we will meet at the next AGM.

Later

ados