weak spot price in the last 2 weeks, page-12

Minerva
At some point one has to place more weight to the spot price and demand and supply than investment bank projections . They have been wrong about U price recovery for 2 years and we are in march and spot is 35 suggesting they are likely to be wrong again
I am attracted to PDN as it has a low cost long life
Mine , but if we consider the all in costs are likely circa 7-9 dollars above spot ( excluding interest on loans ) then LH is probably just above break even now but as you state as LT contracts end the exposure to spot grows and thus they will once again start bleeding cash

Pdn is heavily leveraged to U price , but it medium term valuation will also be determined by the speed in which it recovers . Given PDN debt profile - a U price at 50 in 2014 vs 2015 vs 2016 will ultimately have a material difference to how good an investment PDN is .

My point is don't assume inv bank projections of U price will occur as projected or when projected as many many times inv banks get their predications horribly wrong and will quickly adjust their assumptions as they see fit . This is why I will wait for U price to determine my next entry .