Hank,
a) Hikma and Sanofi are our 2 main supply deals. The numbers attached are very clear. For Sanofi it's 150(?) million units minimum and for Hikma it's 175(?). Question marks are because those are off the top of my head. Yes there is a ramp up period, however Hikma is growing at an unprecedented pace and we have already been advised to expect numbers far beyond the minimum volumes. The other number attached to that is $60 million in total up front payments. Whilst the prices paid by Hikma/Sanofi remain undisclosed it's only a matter of time before we find out, however we are led to expect 40% blended margins so once all devices are in play things will look significantly up.
b) Agreed. However they haven't 'not delivered' either. I don't know of many companies (especially start ups) that manage to keep all their promises, therefore we own shares based on our discretion that they'll do everything in their power to make things happen. After all, I don't think anyone is suggesting that Unilife is conjuring up stories/contracts out of thin air. They exist, they are real, and I'm willing to offer them time after recent developments.
c) I think communication is loud and clear! I don't think there is any more that anyone can say without jeopardizing our customers confidentiality preferences/agreement.
d) This varies from person to person. I agree things could be played closer to the chest, however I believe AS is genuinely excited about what's going on behind the scenes.
e) We have over 300 million MINIMUM units under contract already. That could bring anywhere from $200 - $300 million per year in revenue (will have a better indication in 2015). AS has stated we'll have production capacity of around 400 million units by the end of 2014. Not foregoing the fact we're only just getting started, that is a freaking enormous amount of revenue for such a small company. When we get a contract or 2 for the pumps, we could be looking at over $1 billion in yearly revenue very rapidly.
f) The long term part of that is a given IMO. We're closing 15 - 20 year deals. Strong profit margins have been indicated (blended 40%) however none of us will be able to confirm until we see the reports. Is that enough to not own the stock? Well the company isn't making an effort to take a loss on their products... If we implemented a 10% margin on the syringes alone with only our current contracts, we'd probably cover over half our cash burn. Without mentioning remaining up front payments and new deals on the way...
g) I don't see how an interest only loan until March 2020 could see us facing insolvency. If an absolute emergency occurred, we could cover our payments and then some with the ATM facility. Whilst not ideal, it is a handy backup to have. Things will be much clearer by the end of the year when we see how many units we supplied to Hikma/Sanofi. I daresay we have more than enough cash until then. It has been stated that OrbiMed reviewed our pipeline... I'm pretty confident they saw dollar signs.
In regard to margins. We have been advised to expect 40%. We don't know for sure, we're going off what we've been told. If you believe you know better than management or the pharma's we're negotiating with, then by all means don't own the stock.
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