questions for martis, page-24

Thanks Matt, one of the many things I love about you is you always remain respectful.

I was very uncomfortable posting the comments that referred to you, but decided it was better to say what I thought. I don't wish to alter the path you have chosen for yourself, I simply see large risks and don't wish to see other less knowledgeable investors lose their hard earned cash.

I know you and many others here have a sensible cost basis for ADO, my post was aimed squarely at giving those late to the party a little pause for thought. But even those with a low cost may wish to consider that it is the current price, not you cost basis that matters.

Yes Prana is highly speculative. I'm in the fortunate position in life that I feel very comfortable taking speculative position in companies that I know extremely well and that have very good risk to reward profiles or expected values as I phrased it in the article. I'm long both Prana and Anteo.

Prana has less likelihood of success and could drop by over 60% this month, but it's upside is at least a magnitude of order larger than Anteo's.

The two reasons I didn't write that post about Prana are:
1. I believe Prana's expected value is higher than its current price, while Anteo's is not.
2. People are not pumping the bejesus out of Prana and the majority of longs appear to know the large downside risks they face.

As Assad said on twitter today money is simply a scorecard. Matt I hope to see a lot of runs on your scorecard over the years.

The other time in life that I believe a huge speculative bet is appropriate is when you're young with few obligations. The main difference between the two phases is that most young peeps who hit it rich go on to blow the lot in another speculative venture. That venerable tradition can be traced back to Jesse Livermore and beyond and on through to our own Nathan Tinkler.

muppet thanks for spelling correction. I'm stunned there is only one, can you please look harder.

markvl - Mix&Go is a very simply formulation, backyard may be a stretch, so how does laboratory bucket sound?

Of course I just guessed at 50%, but that guess is based on a lot of experience. There are only 32 companies on the ASX with a net margin higher than 50% and most of those are asset managers or miners.

I'm glad you find some points in my article questionable and hope you go on questioning everything in life and investing.