Well, simply put, Chairmen et al want ownership & control via share placements and dilution, not cash, so they must believe the company is worth multiples of what its at now. The only problem is the waiting game for all investors and the 15% dilution clauses that will continue to take its toll on the price until production occurs. Once producing, 3MT per annum would conservatively place the share on a p/e of around 2 (6c per share earnings for 9c price), much lower than norm of 7 or 8 times for coal sector (implying a 3 fold price increase~ 30c share price on Mongolia alone). Only short term problems are funding & dilution by directors playing with price to further their control and own interest. Once north pit is up and running, further pits opening would see 5MT ++ achieved, so share price should be 3-5 times what it is now (if no further stock issued), but at least 15% will be issued in the next year as indicated above, if not more.....
This is an old analyst report on GUF, but still holds true.
http://www.guildfordcoal.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Capital-Resource-Equite-Report-Guildford-Coal-12.04.13-updated1.pdf
Numbers need to be adjusted for the increase in shares on issue, price of coal and obviously the extended delays to production, but underlying valuation is valid.
Ill say it again, GUF is and will remain on my radar as LT BUY, as it has GOOD potential and is almost over the hill. We need the calculated manipulation & other BS from directors and controlling parties to end and for them to start working for the benefit of ALL shareholders. Directors have too much power in this one, they draw up the agreements (like Springsure - what a rort), they have the controlling votes at EGM (so no point even voting), so the you and me investor is powerless. Ultimately for them to win, the share price must go up, but it will ONLY happen when they want it to. Simple as that. Timing is the key, as mentioned in my first post - its on the watch list for a reason...
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