That counter punch is undoubtedly the pulling power of the upcoming Baragatan drill, and these early bidders are trying to get in at a steal.
The buying power is slowly building around that 3c mark, and I think they're waiting to see just how strong the seller is...no point in paying more if you don't have to.
A little study of the top 20 holdings between 15 March 2013 (Dec 2012 Ann Report), and 10 March 2014 (Dec 2013 AR), shows the selling culprit is most probably HSBC Custody Nominees.
In each report there are three separate holdings which I will add together for convenience sake.
15 March 2013 - HSBC Custody Noms - 244,190,719
10 March 2014 - HSBC Custody Noms - 136,178,132
So they've gotten rid of 108,012,587 (bit less than half) in the last 12 months, although it could've been in the last six months...we don't know. Going forward, the crux is, how many more do they want to disperse?
The HSBC #1 acct has gone from 10.26% as at 15/3/2013 to 4.37% as at 10/3/2014, so obviously nominee accts holding greater than 5% of a company are not considered substantial holders where a Form 604 notice is required, although in the past I have seen where they do comply with this.
In the top 10, everybody except HSBC have in creased their holdings.
Top 20 now holding 994,134,359 or 48.53% of issue. Twelve months ago it was 1,000,344,479 or 48.92% of issue.
Total number of shareholders on the register has decreased by 367 (from 6,683 to 6,613), so in effect we now have larger parcel s/holders.
This is more pertinent when you consider there are 1,973 shareholders (30% of the register) with less than a marketable parcel of shares, ie, $500 worth (<16,500 shares).
Also interesting that Mr Thai appears to be increasing his holding in the company.
A year ago, the only substantial s/h (PIIC - Mr Thai's co.) had 406,951,875 which were most likely held inside the Citicorp Noms acct, and he also had a further 48.327M (2.361%) under the name PIIC at #4 holder top 20 list.
Twelve months on, our only substantial s/h PIIC still has 406,951,875, the Citicorp acct has increased by 88.63M (from 470.764M to 559.39M), PIIC have disappeared from the top 20, but Mr Thai under his own name has appeared on it at #10 with 19.448M (.95%).
Not sure how he's got it organised, but I'm pretty sure he has >20.8% of the co.
West Linapacan.
@ Dargie, mate, I've been through this with you before, your retention span is lacking.
Yes, there are no less than 8 JVP's in the WL project, but three of them (RMA, Pitkin and NDO) hold 80.28% of the equity between them.
The other 19.72% is fully carried to first oil on WL"A" by the two larger partners.
Previously I referred you to the Philodrill website for confirmation of this, so this time I'll give you the PetroEnergy reference...PAGE 8
In case you are averse to clicking on that link, here's an extract from that report...
Farm-Out of the West Linapacan Block (SC 14 C2)
In May 2008, the Filipino members of the Service Contract 14-C2 Consortium, consisting of Alcorn Gold, Forum Energy, Oriental Petroleum, PetroEnergy, and Philodrill, farmed out 75% of its interest to Pitkin Petroleum Ltd. of Dallas, Texas. In exchange, the consortium members are to be free-carried through the West Linapacan oil field redevelopment project.
Since that report Pitkin has divested 50% of it's interest and operatorship to RMA of Honk Kong.
Just for some extra confirmation of the facts, here's the Philodrill reference again...Philodrill - West Linapacan
In regard to NDO's financing ability for their share of the project, let me cite here part of Phil Byrnes response in an interview with Company Interview.
"It is important to note that during this pre-investment decision phase of activity, Nido’s share of expenses is easily manageable from cash flow. It is also important to note that Nido has commenced discussions with banks to secure funding as required for the post FID development costs."
Full transcript available on the Cannings Purple website here...Nido Petroleum Releases Company Interview 2014 Outlook for Operations & Exploration
Good to see that the pulling power of Baragatan is kicking in even more now than when I first started this post. Let's hope the main seller is doing so in retreat.
(20min delay)