6 months ago (16 Sep 2013) Argonaut Securities wrote a piece on TAP - "Inflection Point"
6 months later where are ... apart from a much lower share price (35cps vs 52cps at time of publishing - so down 33%)
Manora "value" has not changed; revised Capex has not changes (and confirmed in the FY report); the delay of production to Aug '14 confirmed again in FY results.
Cash has gone down to $24.5M from the $49M in the report which at the time was valued at 20cps so now becomes 10cps.
Also different is at time of Argonaut the Debt was shown as $0 and now is $20M (CBA drawdown) - call it 8.5cps
Just on Cash & Debt, subtract 18.5 from 52 and we get 33.5cps. Bang on (as not much else has changed in the rest of the portfolio).
Just would like to see the uncertainty removed with the short term need for additional funds.
Again all bets are off inf Manora has become impaired somehow (but they would have had to disclose this by now).
As much as I would like to add to my position I am going to wait.
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sale of zola/bianchi prospects., page-189
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