cudeco and high frequency trading., page-62

leapbegin, because it seems a common thing round here that supporters quote a resource of 1.9%, then multiply this 1.9% by copper spot of ~$3/lb to get revenue figures. This overstates potential revenues by >34%.

Clearly that's the wrong way to look at it - you either use the copper percentage - which went from 0.94% to 1.02% in the last update after all that expensive drilling - then add some credits for Cobalt, or you use the spot resource. When you do either, you have to believe that the Cobalt, Gold and Magnetite can be economically recovered - a big assumption in my view.

"if I deduct the bone of contention - the magnetite I get:

Prev: 30.76
Current eq: 32.38 (i.e. 5% up)"

That's fair enough - exclude the magnetite and the resource is up ~5% (excluding the tonnage reduction of ~1%).

"Current @Spot 37.93 (i.e. 23.3% up)"

Well that's not comparing like with like. The previous resource at spot was $36.1/1000lb, so the current (including magnetite) spot resource of $39.9/100lb is an increase of 10%. Exclude the magnetite, and the old/new numbers are 35.42/37.93, or an increase of 7% - basically the increase in the Copper grade.

If we are discussing the current resource, we should either be using the byproduct method (so 1.04% copper + credits for other elements) or the coproduct method, in which case we should be using the 1.4% CuEq number.

And still 0 tonnes of reserves.

"Do you know what you are doing, or just jumping on every negative bandwagon before checking?????

I don't think I am missing anything, so a response would be interesting."

Very good.

Now, I've worked out how much the NPV of the project is using the numbers Cudeco have provided. I've also worked it out in a bull case (add 30% to overall resource due to missing copper, wayne's desktop model figures accurate etc), a case using mining/processing costs from other comparable resources - I call this one the 'realist' case, and a bear case.

In the bull case, I got close to current market cap, in all the others I get a number significantly less than the current market cap. That's why I'm quite happy to trade CDU on the short side, and why I'm totally uninterested in being long it. Data => investment decision.

Why do so many people do it the other way round?