i think its doubtful they will invade iran.. the post invasion scenario is a hundred times worse than the iraq quagmire
i think its far more likely that israel obviously with us backing will conduct surgical airstrikes on irans nuclear facilities. it could turn into more of a cold war scenario with russia/china backing iran and the us/eu backing israel in an escalating regional conflict.
iran could potentially invade iraq since it has already a lot of local support in the country. us forces there are already stretched and are geared toward guerella warfare not a counter invasion from a powerful conventional army. iran would then be within striking distance of israel.
with us forces tied down in the me china would be tempted to make a move on taiwan.
