good news, page-14

Good post longreach.

I share your surprise at the current share price and agree with your reasoning that it may be due to the market being more intent on getting out prior to the FDA decision.

I have also considered a punt on the FDA's decision as being far more favorable than a punt on red or black. According to my (limited) research, from an historical perspective, QRX's Moxduo currently has a 67% (i.e. 2 in 3) chance of being approved by the FDA. Thus, the odds and the potential reward/loss is considerably more favorable than a punt on the roulette table.

The source of my 67% figure is the following Reuters article:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/14/us-pharmaceuticals-success-idUSTRE71D2U920110214

According to this article, during the period from 2004 to 2010, the success rates for new drugs navigating the FDA clinical trials and approval process were as follows:

- Overall, only about 10% made it from early Stage 1 trials to FDA approval
- 63% passed from Stage 1 to Stage 2 trials
- 33% of these then passed from Stage 2 to Stage 3 trials
- 55% of these went from Stage 3 to lodging NDAs (application costs over $1M USD)
- 80% of these NDAs eventually got approved, though only "about half" were approved on their initial application

Based on these stats, at this stage of the process, QRx has a roughly 67% percent chance of getting approval for Moxduo-IR.