Conf Call today with new CEO ... Sounds very rational and has strong background in brand busineses. Key comments I picked up, "committed to try to achieve the current FY14 forecasts". He certainly was not definitive regarding being actually able to achieve this!! There are cost save opportunities within TWE, although these will be consumed in re-investing in brands and consumer marketing. The low-end brands/commercial side of the business (particularly US) has clear problems. Lots of work required. Very focused on investing in the key brands of this business and consolidating the number of brands. "We will invest in the key brands ahead of the curve".
Overall, I liked the cut of his jib and long term strategic focus, although my read is as follows:
1)I think FY14 forecasts are likely to be revised downwards (China is still bad apparently),
2) I reckon he wants to rebase FY15 forecasts down (classic new CEO activitiy, good for pricing his options package and he is going to re-invest in the business ie more costs near term)
3) more writedowns to Balance Sheet values are likely in the US operations and potential low end Australian ops.
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