crikey that is one big question with lots of answers
technically on 3 year chart should have moved up if following that trend up. instead longer stays at this level more likely uptrend has failed. may see repeat of april 2007 sitting at 80c level with 2 trendlines converging and some ebb and flow i suspect you are right that when finally breaks out we will know. until then may help if you smooth it out to a 20 year chart. can see has made a series of lower highs from 2002 to now. can see that the fall in $US over this period coincides with the surge in commodities from 2002 until dec 2011
3 year uptrend in $US since 2011 which coincides with death of commodities from dec 2011 this uptrend is a blip on scale of 20 year chart. if take it back to 1985 high then even clearer. forex trades 5 billion per day. last 3 years has seen some money flow into $us. would like to see some of it now flow into commodities. dont need a lot for asx commodities to rise
often the case that $US inverse relationship to commodities
exception was 1999 where saw rise in both for awhile.
my new years resolution 2 years ago was to post charts. tried and failed. instead largely stopped posting.
today am fairly content with iron ore now up. coal up.
copper a glimmer of rising. pog a glimmer on 5 min chart. $US up. unusual for them to move together. flow from spx and nasdaq looking for a new home?
as long as some of money flows into commodities here then another good quarter ahead even if $US also has another crack at rising. have to concede if $US does break out then not good
another way of looking at it is if go back to wave up on $US from 1999 to 2002 it coincided with start of commodity super cycle in 2002. once commodities took off in 2002 then $US was toast
which is why this morning it seemed a lot like 1999 in the cycle
i took gold from $400 in 2005 and still sitting on some. the $1000 level was the hardest to get through. maybe not the best investment but fun
we may have another 2 or 3 years of these low levels ahead of us gradually expanding into next cycle but nothing wrong with slow doubling every few months.
(20min delay)