JJ…Costs have been running more than 2x the $14-$15 guidance you use. Does sound judgment rely on guidance which has repeatedly failed for years? Lynas has consistently failed to deliver on plant completion, costs, production and sales yet you claim their guidance is reliable and present calculations based on those fairy tales.
Garbage numbers going in = garbage numbers coming out. JJ, your calculations are a what-if fairy tale… what if Lynas cost is $14… what if 11,000t are produced… what if they could sell all that quantity…what if they weren’t losing huge sums every qtr…and on and on.
Lynas problems are costs running more than 2x the projected $14-$15, cost higher than ASP (see last qtr. maybe you missed that fact, JJ) minimal volumes being produced, ree market is very weak, Moly is producing and selling oxides while Lynas Phase 1 is trying to produce carbonates which are cheaper and less desirable than oxides. Lynas has presented no evidence of oxides being produced by Phase 2; it will take hard evidence to convince the market that they are.
Utter garbage is projecting cost at $14-15 when it has never been under $30. Utter garbage is the nonsense “they can sell all Phase I nameplate” when Lynas itself said production would be “optimized” relative to demand. Got a clue what that means? Gee, you’re a smart guy see if you can figure it out.
It may be harsh but the truth is your friend, JJ, not an enemy.
LYC Price at posting:
19.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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