my take

Lots of unhappy chappies out there, including myself, however, there are a lot of facts which still support the company believe it or not.

1. Product was used to help Bali victims (therefore it is credible)

2. Other countries have approved and are using the products (therefore it is credible)

3. Fiona is Australian of the Year based on her work (therefore product is credible)

Forget the share trading aspect for just a second and treat the company as a whole. Think about the scandal that would eventuate if CCE was rejected outright. Not only would Australia have to make an apology on behalf of Fiona’s involvement in a product (suddenly deemed dubious), victims of the Bali incident could sue the government for allowing the product to be used in the first place. Obviously not going to happen!

4. Management are obviously in a learning curve for marketing and their most obvious problem is not that they have bad products: it is that they have a rather poor PR team. Porter Novelli are not helping them much in my opinion. I wonder what they actually pay Novelli to do. My guess is just press clippings and check media releases. Looking through the releases though, it is obvious that the CCE message is not getting across to the public as well as could be expected.

First job of a PR company is to monitor public awareness and product feedback, then offer solutions. I don't see Novelli doing this at all. Almost certainly no-one is monitoring the feedback on websites like this.

CCE need to reassess their PR strategy, inform the shareholders more and reappoint a new PR executive team. Probably won't happen, but should!

The products are already proven and accepted in other countries, but according to press reports, it appears that the majority of sales are dependent on the USA. It should not be so! CCE have already stated that Australia represents a small market and I believe that to be true. However, they need to get their act together, focus on countries where sales will be made and then generate news about that info. Good PR will focus on the positive issues of the company and build upon that. The TGA and FDA stories should be the crème de la crème, rather than the meat.

So where to? My guess is that CCE will focus on Europe and most probably, Germany first, so I would expect some news on that front. That should bring price up a little. Following that there should be some more news of lower than anticipated income, which will drop price again. A good trading opportunity, even if the order of events occurs the other way.

Bottom line is yes, the company is at fault for not having adequate PR representation, and yes the sp is in freefall due to negative news exposure. However, for the gung-ho, day to day trading is possible. At 20-21 cents a rise to 22-24cents represents 10% increase.

No point shellacking the company in tar as it won't help. Treat it as a speccie and trade the ups and downs. Even if you lost money, you can still get it back as a day trade: it just depends on your perspective.

To get back to the 36-40 cent region may take a year or so, but that represents an almost 100% increase at today’s prices. Not many banks are going to pay that!

If you lost money...get over it! That is the nature of the beast. Could happen to any company, even as big as the mighty AMP for example, and several others, yet they are still in business and continue to attract share support.

I am not happy with the way CCE handle themselves at present, but rather than jump ship, look at the perspective. There is more than one way to beat the odds! Those that rode the last announcement when it plummeted 20 cents and then spiked to 26 cents made a 30% profit. Do that a few times and you will be in front.

Anyway that is my take on the matter. Good luck to all who continue to hold and best of luck to those like me who try to trade and make the best of a bad situation.

Cheers
MM