To clarify these charts for those not familiar with CFTC COT - open interest is active counterparty contracts of 100 ounces each - higher participation is more value at risk
(using aggregated classifications)
AUG2011 1.035M open interest = 103.5 Moz = $194.2Bn mkt cap Lg Spec net long 8:1 (ratio) Sm spec net short 1:1 (net zero position) Commercial net short 1.8:1 Commercials are 56% of the market
compare with
APR2014 614.6K open interest = 61.5Moz = $80.5Bn mkt cap (down 40% in participation) Lg spec net long 3.5:1 Sm spec net short 1:1 (net zero position) Commercial net short 1.5:1 Commercials are 58% of the market
My guess is speculation is moving into undocumented/unreported derivatives with less oversight.