stock to watch

Metabolic Pharmacuticals is due to release the lastest phase 2 trial results by the end of the month. Volume has been increasing in the last few days in anticipation of these results.

However, Circadian Technologies CIR holds 34% of Metabolic and generally rises as MBP does. This is due because each CIR share equates to 1.3 MBP shares.

Along with their other holdings in AML, ANP, AXN, OIL and their cash on hand equates to each CIR share being worth about $2.20 at todays closing prices.

So CIR is trading at a 40% discount at the current price.

Also Packer & Co. Ltd have been slowly increasing their holdings over the last year and now have at least 8.6% according to their latest ASX announcement. I worked out the average price paid by Packer & Co. Ltd and it is approx $1.95. And by my calculations they have bought 32% of the shares sold on the ASX between 4/02/2002 and 6/01/2003.

In addition the value of CIR's holdings in Amrad (CIR owns 21.64%) should increase in the near future when AML completes the sale of their Melbourne property, as they reported recently ($50M+). The property sale price is higher than AML's current company valuation based on the share price.