short term trading week starting - 21st apr, page-41

Take care with entry into FAR from here.
I have traded oilers for many years.

Leading up to the spud of the well the balance of buyers versus is heavily weighted to the buyers - just pull up a 12 month chart of FAR and you will see heavy accumulation and price run up from 2.5 to 6c. The smarts have been and gone I am afraid.

However at spud and during drilling trading is very unpredictable and on a high percentage of occasions the balance swings back to sellers. This is because many people just trade the pre-spud period only and do not take the risk with the well result. So many people do this is actually affects the share price action in a predictable manner.

So trading in the spud and post spud period of an oiler is fraught with uncertainty and if a stock gets dumped at spud, there is often no return.

In FARs case it got hit with the failure of the PCL sunbird well as well as the spud announcement at the same time, hence the rush for the doors.

A bounce back? possible, but probabilities say it is unlikely... With oilers, waiting for a bounce back is a dangerous game. Sometimes they just keep sinking.

Take these comments as you wish.

I do not hold the stock. Bought 2.8 sold 4.6 (too early!)

Cheers
Gosouth