Hi asf, i've had a go with my model... Have attached two table - the first is the numbers without milestone payment - ie modeling royalty payments only:
The second is with full milestone payments included:
My numbers suggest strong upside value - assuming that: 1) Axiron can take further market share; and 2) that the overall US market grows; and 3) axiron can penetrate internal markets over time.
Happy to provide further detail behind my assumptions - at a high level i forecast market share expansion and growth out to 2017 (peak market share) and then fade it at -2%pa until 2021 - where i calculate terminal value. Generics will become a factor in the market and i don't believe market share will be held in the face of that... so all conservative stuff.
Happy to take any questions / criticisms... clearly the market does not see value here so what am i missing?
Regards, mita
ACR Price at posting:
$1.04 Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
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