macbank's view, page-11

That's a great question daclaw - I'm not 100% sure that they can... taking market share does take time - it has taken over 2years to get to 14% so getting to 25%+ by 2017 is not impossible. Yes, market share has been stagnant for the last 2-3 Qs but not sure i would call that a solid trend - just yet. Lots of stuff going on in the market at the moment - with the FDA and it is very difficult to make predictions as a result...

but will put my optimistic hat on and have a go at this:

1. the Lilly sales force was restructured late last year for Axiron - i think this slowed market share momentum - any benefits of more aggressive / effective sales should start to flow through
2. Axiron does have product advantages over Androgel - both application and strength - sorry very simplistic but seems to have worked so far (getting them from 0-14% share / 2nd position in the space of 2years). From what i understand with the Gels - you have to be very careful applying them and the risk of skin contact with others is a big disadvantage
3. Axiron now has wider cover from the commercial managed care market - wider market cover may translate into share gains
4. its not just the US market share that matters - Axiron is being rolled out internationally and will take share in new markets as well (Canada + Brazil + Germany are large markets)
5. Androgel is the leader in the market with Androgel1% and Androgel1.6% having 66.8% share (combined). The 1% product is declining and Axiron may be able to switch users from the 1% to its own 2% formula
6. As Androgel is the largest player - it will probably be the company most lawsuits are filed at... biggest target and may be distracted as a result.

the counter to all this is:
1. at 2% Axiron may been seen as more risky to use based on the current FDA warnings - ie stronger product = high risk?
2. switching between injections and gels etc - injections last longer - could be a threat for all transdermal products
3. generics - they will come - just a question of when
4. new products / methods of application - oral? not sure oral is ever going to fly but others are working on this
5. the FDA - they are clearly not helping, but will take as long as it takes... my guess we will not see anything from them for a long time... what they need is more research!. In the meantime every lawyer and DTC advertising critic / PR company is having a field day - pushing the agenda / bad news out there...
6. Axiron is a small part of Lilly - hard to know how much support it really has - my take is this market is all about the salesforce - Androgel has the largest and strongest force so that will make market share gains harder. Does Lilly really support this product and is it willing to invest in this?