dysprosium crisis is coming, page-15

Good pick up Tonio, a little surprised no one else has picked that up until now. To some degree I think it can be rationalised by the article I've pointed to previously by Dr Stan Trout:

http://spontaneousmaterials.com/Papers/Spring2013.pdf

Reduced dependence on Dy supply/price will help the NdFeB magnets grow quite dramatically, with NdPr making up 32% Lynas's numbers predict 150kt magnets pa with 2100tpa Dy making up 1.4%, identical number to Trout's via Kingsnorth's numbers.

As Trout implies Dy will stream to those apps where it's advantages are needed, high temp, etc, at a higher percentage but there will be a high percentage of particularly bonded mags Dy free to seat motors etc.

Not sure that totally, or accurately explains the numbers in the Lynas preso, but it does strongly suggest that the competition will contain Dy in a relatively tight economic threshold, irrespective of China or ROW.

Current pricing around $300kg might be some sort of benchmark, otherwise designers move to Dy free/lite and heat shielding/redesign etc.

Simply trying to join a few dots but I don't think volume demand is the issue here but rather the economic threshold for Dy, recent advances are likely to cap price, and I really can't understand Hongpo's panic attack, if Dy is not available or too expensive it will be designed out, reliable supply at economic pricing it will be employed for the advantages it offers.

From NTU's POV I'd be more concerned re price/demand for Y and the price impacts on a 92% feedstock containing circa 60%. If you want to rely on the Lynas data for one point I imagine you're happy to accept another? Y shown at 5.4kt in heavy oversupply. NTU will have no troubles selling all the Dy it can produce provided the ROM suite can be sold profitably within it's economic threshold. Guess you have to hope Lynas's forecast on the phosphors suite is pessimistic, but I note it includes their second largest income stream in Eu.