possible scenarios for long termers, page-19

Firstly, let me declare my position as a current holder of pdy.

Although a long-term holder I sold down approx. 2/3’s of my holding into the recent sp rise BEFORE the announcement of April 11. Essentially I am currently in front overall (just) when looking at my remaining pdy and pdyo holding. I am declaring this not to gloat or prove a point, merely to provide current holders with my position so they may take the following comments into context.

And so to the current situation. Obviously the events of the past month have placed a serious question mark over the future of the company, and its directors in particular. For what it’s worth I offer the following thoughts.

Short term prospects to 30 June 2014.
* 30 June 2014 is a key date as listed options (and some unlisted options, incl for directors) expire and the company would have been expecting these, on the back of good news, as a source of income.
* Given current situation it is highly unlikely these options will be exercised and therefore no income to the company at 30 June.
* On top of this prospect, there will be more costs incurred in the current quarter, particularly legal costs. This will leave the likely cash position of the company at 30 June to be bordering on critical.
* On this basis, and without trying to be alarmist, holders should at least consider that there is the prospect of administrators &/or receivers &/or liquidators being suddenly appointed to pdy.
* Given the above points, should the company be able, and choose, to survive it will have to raise capital which will be difficult given recent events.

The one hope?
* The one hope for the company is the ownership of the Yilgarn IP and I believe this is why Stokes is heading to China, in an attempt to do some sort of deal.
* I would think given the above issues, he may be hoping that recent news around Oakajee will bring out prospective investors to get the project underway and into that he may well be looking to sell the IP outright to the highest bidder.
* A short-term solution and one i would imagine Stokes may be hoping to pull off to try and save a smidgeon of credability.
* This would certainly solve short-term cash concerns for pdy.

These are my observations of the current short-term situation only. The bottom line is that for current holders the situation is critical and you should assess your OWN position in order to make your OWN decisions as to whether to sell currently or hold on.

There is a lot of commentary on hc, some helpful, much not so, so my advice to holders is to seriously consider your position.

In closing, given my disclosure at the beginning of this post, I currently intend to hang on to see if a deal of some sort can be done. I’m also interested to find out who would be buying at this time.

Good luck to all.

Cheers,
Mac


Please dyor.