AKK 0.00% 0.3¢ austin exploration limited

billions of shares, page-22

  1. 1,304 Posts.
    Hi Cmon,

    "Insufficient (Niobrara) oil makes it uneconomic to develop the wet gas (NGL's on avg getting 30-35% of WTI per bbl). IMO, there is at this point insufficient information available for this area. It's why I make the reference that it is not de-risked (company has only ever said "substantially de-risks the company's future development path").

    Cmon...If you're more comfortable with 'substantially', run with that

    Pierre oil does not appear to have much associated gas production so this does not affect the GIP GPA.

    Granted, the two are separate in my view also, but given the infrastructure by then in place, in your estimation, are they likely to plug and abandon an oil-less well, heaven forbid we encounter one, but which is producing sufficient gas to warrant a hook up (simply by virtue of pipeline access).

    I'm not in any way, shape or form suggesting AKK abandon Niobrara/Pierre oil and go looking for gas simply because a pipeline exists. I'm simply saying that in the event of gas in commercial quantities, associated with an oil well, it does by any measure, mitigate the win-lose proposition on pure oil exploration.

    I agree the economics don't stack up for a profitable pure gas play from an exploration cost perspective, but thats not what we're dealing with. It is what it is, a bonus byproduct of oil exploration.

    "But maybe my most cautionary aspect is I hate to be first in the area - and that is what AKK is doing with Niobrara. There is huge risk for a micro-cap to do that."

    Totally agree, bloody nerve wracking. I draw comfort from the measured way this company has stuck its toe in the water in Colorado. I'd be a lot more nervous if Cottee had road-showed a $50-70 million proposition (especially if he'd pulled it off) to prove up an oil and gas field from scratch and build all the required infrastructure on virgin ground.

    Yes, they took a reasonable cost punt and for mine, it came off sufficient to get us a gas pipeline, an oil/gas 'surprise', indications of new field potential, and an opportunity to present something later on to a JV partner (BUT AGREE...No oil, no play)

    Beyond that...we're on the same page...The EFS is the company maker, not Pathfinder. Lets officially hold hands on that score Cmon. My comments re niobrara are purely thoughts designed to stimulate a discussion, as there's precious little else to go on.
 
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