capitulation...or storm in a teacup?

Wethx: Capitulation? It depends who you are:

Gilead: 52wk High: $84.88 Currently: $79.83 Mkt Cap: $123B (that's right!)
Alnylam: 52wk High: $112.57 Currently: $54.34 Mkt Cap: $3.5B
Dicerna: 52wk High: $46 (on day it listed!) Currently: $18.51 Mkt Cap: $329m
Arrowhead: 52wk High: $27.63 Currently: $10.96 Mkt Cap: $497m
Bluebird: 52wk High: $36.25 Currently: $19.34 Mkt Cap: $1467m
Sangamo: 52wk High: $24.69 Currently: $13.27 Mkt Cap: $885m
uniQure: 52wk High: $18.75 Currently: $10.04 Mkt Cap: $177m
Benitec: 52wk high: $2.38 Currently: c.$0.90 -$1.00 Mkt Cap: $100 - 110m

Note Gilead is back near its highs due to its '100 pound gorilla' status in the space. But make no mistake IF our science is as good as the company hopes it will be...we will become a significant thorn in Gilead's Sovaldi driven Hep-C program (currently billed as being the most successful drug ever released!). If this is what transpires, we will also become a very valuable company in the process (and that's just in Hep-C).

Capitulation? Well some of the US market caps certainly indicate there has been a bit of that on their side of the pond. But valuations had turned parabolic and had to adjust at some stage. The key measure is not the % drop from the top, but the RELATIVE valuations...and a quick comparison will indicate we have a lot of of catching up to do!

Without doubt - there will be winners and losers in this battle, but many of the above are not even in the clinic, yet their valuations dwarf that of Benitec! Despite its recent uptick, Benitec never shared the same enormous growth as some of these stocks, so if we are being marked down to the same extent, that represents a great buying opportunity for mine.

Apologies for not buying into the 'capitulation' story in relation to Benitec. IMO we are seeing three forces here:

1. Concrete manipulation of the market to induce SP falls.
2. Weak /speculative holders selling into the SP falls.
3. The very vast majority of LT holders sitting back and watching the fireworks.

One last point: even at $100m market cap, the turnover in BLT is averaging a lot well under 1% of the value of the company on any given day (and usually less than 0.5%). In turn, at least 50% of these are bots 'playing with themselves' (i.e. same buyer and seller). So all in all - the recent sell-off is perhaps not quite as newsworthy as you may think.

It might look like a capitulation to you, but I suggest it could look like a long-forgotten storm in a tea-cup once we start dosing and showing some promising safety and efficacy reads.

Which reminds me... I was about to make myself a cup of tea...

-RS