rethink about iron ore future, page-14

Hi Moneymaker

Have a look at the company's latest presentation.

They specifically say that they break even is is low $70. That is achieved $70. WET. The achieved price is is 80% of spot price.

So if the market has already factored in $80, are they talking spot price or achieved wet price? If it is wet, than the market has effectively talking about current prices, ie 80% of current prices. If it is talking $80 spot, then we have a long way to fall yet. 80% of $80 is $64 and where does that put FMG?

Analysts are not worth 2 bobs. I have in front of me two analysts reports. I look at their assumptions in wet achieved prices and tonnage shipped and then look at their top line of revenue. You would expect that tonnes shipped by achieved wet prices = sales? Hundreds of millions difference in both of them.

Interesting that when analysts are bullish every body here likes to use them to justify their beliefs and post copious reports. When they are bearish, why they are just leeches.

We don't need analysts. The company has now given us enough figures to make our own calculations.

Bottom line where is iron price in the future? Make up your own mind. Believe $100+ and we are OK. Believe $100- and it is time to get out.

I do share your frustration that if you post a contrary opinion, posters come out of the wood work and attack you.

Regards


Pear