price slowly showing signs of life, page-27

Hi Floydf

I am not a chartist, but past history has shown that TGA has a regular sawtooth pattern, and it is now at a lowish point heading upward. Over the last three or so years the SP topped at about $2.30 thrice, and recently at about $2.60, so I think it will get to $2.30 fairly soon. I bought recently at $2.10 on the basis that I thought the SP would go up by about 10% in May.

There is not much purpose advancing a fair-value price now, but if one did, I would expect it would lie between $2.30 and 10% above that, say $2.50 as a rounded number. As usual, for now I'll plumb for the midpoint, $2.40. We are so close to the preliminary report for YE 30/03/2014 announcement scheduled for 20/05/2014, that we may as well recalibrate our FA thinking on new metrics and such soft information as can be gleaned from the announcements.

I am unsure how useful graphs are for a period that includes a significant announcement date. The SP could easily get to within your $2.35-$2.40 range within six weeks, because the preliminary announcements should be positive.