what could go wrong?, page-80

Great work ViperX1,

I'm just wondering why you never ran the figures with the HA arm having either a 2.8 month increase over the FOLFIRI arm or an 116% increase.

You seem to have done very detailed analysis (or Tewks has), but avoided using the biggest piece of evidence we have. I'm aware that that evidence is a one off event, but the fact that we know that more chemo gets to cancer cells using HyACT - that it is a pretty sure thing that we will have a positive result (not a definite).

A bit like accessing how fast Usain Bolt can run by assessing the speed of the other runners, but not using Usain's own results.

But it is a very interesting post.

In some ways it shows that quantitative analysis is useless when assessing such an unknown entity. The fact that the probability of the trial still continuing is nil, just proves that!

There's intelligence and then there is wisdom.

But it is of interest showing the FOLFIRI arm all the same.


On another note, I woke up with an analogy in my head.

That there's a chap called Mr Irinotecan who wants to go as fast as he can and he runs the same route up a hill. His speed averages 2.4mph.

Mr Alchemia then come along and says why not take the HA route, which goes down hill. He runs down there and achieves an average of 5.2mph.

Well now Mr Irinotecan uses a bike (his Folfiri bike), and with the aid of his bike he achieves an average close to 5mph on his uphill route.

So now Mr Alchemia has sent him off down the HA route on his Foliri bike.

We are now looking for him and have travelled over 10 miles but we can't find him.

The safety of the bike and route has been checked, so we know he hasn't fallen off.

Maybe the route wasn't run properly, and he has gone somewhere else or has just stopped off at a pub.

Or maybe Mr Irinotecan with the aid of his Folfiri bike can really use this great downhill route to its fuller advantage, and he is averaging 13mph or more!

Perhaps he has already reached town and is enjoying a pizza and coffee (no cancer cells left at all).

Cheers
;-)