what is it worth then?, page-14

Meta - well done...

If you look at the vote for Rob Neale item 6(d) at the AGM as a guide as to how people might vote this deal...

'For' was ~62% of the votes cast and only ~60% or so of shareholders voted.

So we know Rob can probably secure ~37% of votes, noting that NHC/GP is 30.5 of this. This means his support rate with minority voters was ~(37%-30.5%)/(60%-30.5%) = 22%.

Let's hypothetically assume the 40% who didn't vote because they were lazy cast in a similar fashion to the minority. In this scenario, maybe he can secure 37% + 22% * 40% = 46% of the vote for this deal... Unfortunately that isn't enough to get the deal through as he needs 75%.

So what will it take?

Of the minority who didn't vote, he requires (75%-37%)/40% = 95% strike rate to vote in favour. That seems pretty high and so he is betting most will be lazy and not vote again and default to the chairman vote (ie himself).

Considering that it is likely some of those passive non-voters might cast given its a takeover, I'm surprised DTE haven't put out a presentation to campaign this deal harder.

Rob's still got some work to do in my view.