CTP central petroleum limited

announcement out, page-72

  1. 40 Posts.
    Great discussion we have going guys.

    Salt is the perfect seal, and that we have Helium at all at Magee and Mt K speaks of the seal integrity over at least 130km. speculator101's structure map shows a fair few structures in EP125 and EP112 that are near to or between Magee and Mt Kitty that we could reasonably assume have similarly good seal. I don't think it's much of a stretch to assume that if the seal is good over 130km, it's probably good over much of the rest of the basin too. But one step at a time, there are plenty of structures here! I'll get back to this later.

    We've definitely got natural gas in Magee and Mt K. So we know there are laterally expansive petroleum sources sub-salt that has been trapped in 2/2 structures over 130km apart. Great! Again all those fields in EP112.EP125 may have some intermediate composition between Mt K and Magee.

    The helium % is the real kicker though. 6-9% in Amadeus is ridiculous. I can't find many analogs... Even the mighty Hugoton field in USA, which gave the world the majority of its helium production through the 20th century, is a modest 0.3-1.9% (from wikipedia, not the greatest source I know). Look at all those structural highs in the Amadeus just between Mt K and Magee and know that they are all probably high % helium as well behind a perfect seal. Helium is so valuable that this basin is probably worth developing on the back of that ALONE! The gas/wetgas is just a nice bonus.

    Now we reach the tightness of the reservoir rock. Two words: WHO CARES! The sooner we stop treating the Amadeus like a conventional basin the better. Drill it horizontally, sinusoidally, frack it, stim it, whatever... take all the techniques that have resulted in the US shale/tight oil boom and apply them to the Amadeus sub-salt until the perfect combination is found. The technology and skills are in the market right now. It's time to start using them! This isn't 1920. The gas will flow if we make it flow.

    So what's the hold up? I think all we are waiting on is for Santos to find out just how filled Mt Kitty is with gas and to confirm its high He concentration. It's the last critical piece of information. And just when this was about to happen, the rig tips over!!! I reckon if they find it's filled close to spilling point then they will immediately start developing Mt K as a pilot project and start systematically testing other nearby structures. It's the only course of action which makes sense to me. Santos has already shot the regional lines with exactly this in mind. They cross right through as many structures as they can.



    Santos are just waiting, patiently. Considering their options. Do we exercise our 70% option or do we just take 'em over? That extra 30% might be worth billions, and CTP is really undervalued right now. We could have it all 100%.

    If it were me at Santos, I'd have done in-place calculations for all the fields in EP112 and EP125 assuming 3-6-9% helium and filled to spill points, reservoir properties some intermediate of Mt Kitty and Magee. And on my desk I'd have a really big number. Then I'd scale that number based on various volumes, assuming they are filled to spill, or half filled, etc. Then I'd have another set of calculations done for the cost of evaluating and developing X number of fields assuming horizontal drilling and fraccing. Then I'd compare the numbers. At a certain volumetric value it becomes economic to just go ahead and exercise the 70% and drill as per their agreement. But if the upside becomes high enough, it makes more economic sense to just take over central or at least their Amadeus interest. Central is cheap. Especially when considered alongside the upside in NW Mereenie and PL/6. And I'd be thinking real hard to do it as soon as possible because if Mt Kitty comes in, Central aint gonna be cheap anymore!

    p.s. I believe Mt Kitty was their chosen target because its structure was best known. Amadeus has a history of off-structure drilling.
 
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