what could go wrong?, page-108

For me it's more like a double edged sword.

The longer the trial extends, then perhaps the more likely there'll be an exceptional improvement in PFS( so the upside potential increases). However the further the study extends out past the Statistical Assumptions made by the company, then the more you're betting blindly into the potential of HA, thus the more you're relying on "faith", as opposed to statistical backing. So in my opinion you have to beable to put faith & bias to one side, and consider other variables as to why the study has extended on- eg the longer it extends, then perhaps the more likely there's something unexpected happening in the control arm aswell( therefore the downside risk also increases)

I know I sound like some annoying downramper, and most holders probably want me gone from these threads. However I just wanted to offer my opinion, and explain exactly why I'm not holding any stock, when I held this company for so long....

I'm not holding stock because I don't have faith in HA( what ever my beliefs are around HA don't even factor into my decision). I'm just not holding because I simply don't think it's a good bet going into data lock, and I don't like the risk vs reward ratio on what essentially comes down to a coin flip( It's hard to argue that results of success are much greater than 50/50). I have no trouble betting on 50/50 outcomes, however not when I consider the risk/ward ratio to be no greater than 1:1( eg a negative result could see the SP anywhere from 10-20c, While a positive result could see 80-90c plus).

So for a "general" example, if the SP was trading at 50c when the preliminary data is announced, and you had 2000 units/ $1000 worth of stock. If data is positive then perhaps the SP could re open @ >80c, so your $1000 is now worth $1600. However If data is negative/ and the end point is not met, then perhaps the SP could reopen @ <20c, so your $1000 is now worth $400. Some might not agree with these opening prices, however I think they're pretty reasonable assumptions.

Current holders will either be greatly rewarded, or utterly disappointed. However for me the risk vs reward makes holding stock into datalock pretty foolish- especially when you start to consider additional factors such as diminishing Fonda revenues, the state of the current biotech market, and the high percentage of Phase 3 Oncology studies that fail(62%)...