tristanc - Thanks for those diagrams, and for your reasoned response. I 100% agree with you that the choice of origin cannot be overstated, especially when temperature fluctuations (over a given period) between the hottest and coldest years are always far in excess of the average rate of warming over that same period.
No problem with the averaging of all the models - we're on the same page here. Looking at that second graph in particular, I reckon we'll need at least 5, maybe up to 10 years, to determine which "side" of the argument has got this global warming idea about right.
If the 'pause' / 'very mild warming' we're now experiencing continues over that period, it looks like curtains for the CAGW proponents. Even IF the temperatures jumped in a record-breaking fashion after 2025, the sceptics will have won the battle for the public's mind well before then.
