Massey: "The future is what we are talking about."
Oh, abso-bloody-lutely.
You, sir, are spot on with that prescient observation.
The future is what I, too, am in the business of.
Trouble is, in the absence of counter argument, the future invariably is the same as the past.
And that is especially the case in a well-established economic series with a deep time precedent such as housing values.
One of the follies that professional investors love to quote is:
"This time its different."
Sadly, it very seldom is.
Sure, indeed this time it might well be different and the future may well, in fact, differ from the past.
But to convince your readers it will take a bit more sophisticated an argument from you than:
"The past - up.
The future - down"
Even my seven year old daughter won't buy that level of flaky conviction.
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Peter Batten, MD
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