predictions, page-13

Merely a long term investor who does not currently have a great deal of time to trade candles and moving averages etc and think I have previously made mention before however despite the significance of a bottle of wine or two can anyone shed light on the "actual" significance is Spud day?
Whether the drill bit is a metre above the sea floor or a thousand metres down and drilling forward I would have thought things are the same in that nobody is expecting any sign of hydrocarbons and therefore buys time value.
Of course at that imminent time where the drill is nearing the depth of potential pay zones there is probably no turning back however Spud seems a bit pre-mature to suggest that its all in or out by then?...or am I wrong? It appears most believe that after Spud day that is it, however trading is surely to go on with the normal stoush between buyers and sellers? The game right up until the pay zones are close appears to me that it is pretty much the same as it is now? Perhaps the wild card is the game that the Soph's play and perhaps it is them who are driving the current imbalance?