Apologies, PD you are correct my methodology as stated is incorrect!! In my haste to get out to lunch, I misread my spreadsheet completely. $100m CBA debt facility of which $92m is remaining and available to be utalised = EBIT of $18.5m at a 5x multiple = Potential for AFJ to generate $47m EBIT post debt funded acquisitions. At 7.5x EBIT (AFJ's current multiple) SP target = $1.50. At 10x EBIT (~GEM's current FY16F EBIT multiple) SP target = $2.20. Interestingly the PE ratio at these target prices would = 8x and 14x respectively.
I still think $2.50 is achievable within 12mths.
AFJ Price at posting:
$1.29 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held