I've given up trying to work out the logic behind my allocations and the subsequent price performance. Recent IPOs I've been in are:
Virtus - 0% scaleback, 7% stag with big gains soon after
Affinity - 65% scaleback, 7% stag with big gains soon after
Veda - bids capped at $100k, 5% scaleback, 44% stag
Nine - 0% scaleback, 2% loss
SG Fleet - 30% scaleback, 7% loss
Japara - bids capped at $50k, 20% scaleback, 20% stag
iSentia - bids capped at $50k, 2% scaleback, 20% stag
Genworth - 55% scaleback, 10% stag
Asaleo - 30% scaleback, 4% stag
As you can see, not much rhyme or reason to it all. It also depends on whether your broker is a lead manager or co-manager.
My biggest dud was SG Fleet yet it had 30% scaleback. Also Affinity had 65% scaleback but had ony a 7% stag and actually closed below IPO price I think before taking off a bit later. And the best performer Veda had only a 5% scaleback but delivered a 44% stag, although bids were limited to $100k
