The current rally (since mid April) in the U.S., as shown using the ES futures contract, appears to be becoming soft.
Since June, each rally has failed to reach the supply line (top) of the trend channel,
and has recently threatened to drop through the demand line (bottom) of the channel.
The last thrust higher (from 1954.75) was far shorter than the previous thrust higher (from 1887.50).
Finally, all the recent downbars have a wide spread, showing an 'ease of downward movement',
as opposed to the upbars which are generally much narrower and show more of a grinding higher action (making hard work of it).
That is not to say the contract will just roll over now, but it is looking soft,
it may morph into a sideways trading range or consolidation zone for a while now,
perhaps between the current highs, and the mid June (1919.00) or late June (1936.25) lows.
cheers
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- Weekend Charting and Chat - 18 July 2014
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