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niako

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21/07/14

09:27

Post #: 13688076
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Originally posted by mandurah ↑

1. 5 months for a 30 day well agreed, is far too long.

2. $12-15 million for a 4 stage frac only, is way too expensive. If the field is is "developeable" then with your only
drilling rigs, this should come down to 8-10 million.

3. 3 mmscfd , with a good gas price would see this project on the margin imo. 4-6mmscfd would offer commerciality
based on good gas price, better fraccing techniques & longer laterals, economies of scale through horizontal integration,
etc.

4. We will either be taken out if commercial flow rates are good or get quite a few million in the kitty with the exercise of options as the SP should imo be around the 35-45c mark if the flow is on the high side of 6mmscfd. This would give Oilex a great kick-start if were to
develop its share of the field. We would also be raising working capital at much higher prices and less dilution should Cambay prove
to be commercial.

5. Transparency imo has been good this time round , anns have been pretty spot on with their timing, particularly with the fracc and
post milling ops.

6. I would opt for much more experienced "oil" management should the field prove commercial.

7. Recent SP gives no reason to be alarmed. 2c off our highs for the year. If it drops below 10c over the coming weeks
then that would be cause for concern as it would indicate to me that not enough gas/condensate is being recovered from the fracc
fluids. First few week or so it's mainly water & sand & mud that's being recovered anyway. Thereafter, as less fracc fluid remains, the
gas/condensate shows should be more prevalent.

8. It's all in the waiting now. At least we have arrived at this point. We will not be left to die wondering.

GLTAH

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