croupier - Yes they are all possibilities - nay probabilities.
And I take your point of the present circumstance are in some ways a product of our own devices.
However, not one of the scenarios listed is far from reality NOW!!!
Remove the impact - deterrent if you like - of the US presence and its a done deal.
As for using as you say isolation/coercion etc....thats what preempted Japan's desire to join the Axis in WW2.
