Nice-looking analysis, poly, but it makes a basic error - it equates market price with value ("In 2007 it was worth $1.8bn. [..] 2 years ago [..], it was worth $700M [..] 4 months ago [..], SILEX tech was worth $300M+.").
The reality is that the value of the technology has slumped with the U market (SLX royalties relate to U market price), with delays (each year of delay reduces value at the discount rate), with indefinite postponement of Wilmington (time discount), with the implied increased risk that Wilmington won't happen, and with the long history of bad news making investors ever more fearful that the bad news hasn't ended. For example, there is still a significant risk that Paducah won't go ahead, because the technology still has to be scaled up successfully. On top of that, you can't reasonably count all of current cash into company value, because a lot of it is going to be burned between now and the hoped-for Paducah start-up. Company announcements only say that with all the cost-cutting measures, cash "should" last.
All in all, the real value of SLX is ... well, it's hard to be precise, but I would say it's $1-2 for Paducah, discounted say 5 years at 10-15%, divided by say 2-3 for the risk of Paducah not going ahead, less say 25-40% for contingency. ie, 0.10 to 0.50. That's a big range, but expected given all the unknowns. Note also that a Paducah go-ahead would be an instant doubling or trebling of the value.
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