Ann: Strategy Update - ATL1103 & ATL1102, page-55

Chiasma=dfferent part of the acromegaly market as it was going after the space of the first line treatments which account for about 60% of the market. Second line treatment which is our space is the remaining 40% that fail these first line treatments.
To be fair though the deal was done before the efficacy result was known so Roche was in on the expectation that the oral octreotide be as effective as the injectables.
What is in 1103's advantage is that phase 3 will have exactly the same trial endpoint as our current phase2, so from a partnering perspective this has considerably less risk than taking an unproven ,untrialled oral form and paying mega bucks for it.
All we need is for 1103 to continue the success it had in the pre lim (at around 40% reductions) and as weekly injection it will represent a brand new drug for this end of the market with only the daily injection of Somavert as competition.
Takeover v licensing is seemingly a bit of a no brainer as I think many here would gladly accept between 50-70c per share. Resulting in the pharma basically paying for 1103 with no strings attached apart from what is obligated to Isis and then picking up 1102 and 1101 for nix. Cant seeing it being a whole lot more when you considering Isis will receive cash either way, Circadian received their shares for zip and the bulk of other holders are all retail investors.
Unless of course we end up in a bidding war then all bets are off and we may see something a little more spectacular. But for now I will be keen to see those results hit somewhere between 40and 50%.
The other point worth mentioning and its something that rest assured would not be lost on any pharma looking over 1103's data, is that we are treating the toughest of acromegaly patients. These are generally patients that are either failing all current treatments from either lack of results or bad reactions to them. As pointed out to me , sufferers who are currently receiving treatment and responding to it are not going to drop everything and go through a long wash out period for a new drug trial. Therefore the success 1103 has had to date on this particular group cannot be understated. Enrolment post pre lim results would have been considerably easier just knowing there were no reported adverse events. But being efficacious as well would have hopefully attracted some more manageable cases where starting Igf-1 was perhaps more representative of normal sufferers.
The obvious upside is that if 1103 can crack the tough cases then this opens up a larger available market which has been identified in several studies by the high number of sufferers not receiving the appropriate treatment if any at all.