Whats going on??, page-5

First 5 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Gralynchett

369 Posts.

17/09/14

20:52

Post #: 13990248
Share

Originally posted by johnmcgee ↑

The price movements are based on other people with different logic to you. No amount of math will tell you what the other guy thinks is a good price sell them for

i.e. you found SWM at $1.60 and said "wow, this is cheap" someone else said "wow this is expensive" I'll sell them now. You wait a month and un-suprisingly, the guy that you purchased your shares from still thinks $1.60 is a good price to sell his shares. You can't expect him to change his mind overnight, nor can you take it as proof that you made the wrong decision. Nor can you predict the short term movements (excluding those with HFT algos and direct access to the exchange). I spent years of my time and thousands of dollars in under-performance attempting to determine methods of predicting what the other guy would pay. Everything from algorithms to reading charts and every time I crunched the numbers it became obvious no amount of maths is going to tell me what Mr douchbag Market thinks is a reasonable price to sell his shares. At $1.70 you are getting 10% dividend return inc franking credits and a reasonable chance of higher dividends in the future as they pay down debt and payout a higher amount of earnings as dividends. Obviously, the risk is that TV and newspapers stand a good chance of dying over the next 5-50 years.

It is a unreachable goal to think your shares will increase by 25% in a month every month. That is 300% in a year. Warren buffet averages about 20% a year and he is the best in the world. You are not warren buffet and I'd hazard a very solid guess that you never will be. Set your expectations a little lower. If the shares average $1.80 in the next year then you are matching Buffet. That's an impressive achievement. It'll bounce up and down. Last year it reached $2.50 for a bit.

End Rant.

Expand

It's kind of bitter sweet this stock yielding >6%. Whilst it's good to get that higher dividend yield in your back pocket, it also activates mechanism in the CPS' which adjusts the conversion price. The adjustment to the conversion price will eventually lead to increased dilution.

I've gotta admit, the ~15% drop in share price does make this a little tempting again.

SWM Price at posting: $1.67 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

NVU

Nanoveu surges 10% after benchmark testing for new AI chip begins

Week 42 Wrap: HotCopper's top picks; new ASX 200 record; world yawns at war

IRX

InhaleRX snags $38.5M in funding from VC biotech funder Clendon

M4M

Macro, Norden set up transport solutions initiative for West Pilbara

TLG

Talga Group wins key permit for flagship graphite mine in Sweden

What's causing the cost-of-living crisis, and how to navigate it

SNX

Sierra Nevada raises $2M for silver exploration at Blackhawk

MKT

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

MTH

Mithril's drilling in Mexico picks up silver at 997g/t, gold at 28g/t

SWP

Swoop lobs $18M offer at microcap telecom Vonex – in which it holds 19.9%