That's an opinion. What piece of evidence, history or other, is that opinion based on. I know some play the stock market on the principle of having a guess but most use history. All I'm suggesting is that we examine what has happened in Afghanistan and, until proven wrong, make the assumption that that pattern is just as likely and probably more likely to be repeated than the pattern you suggest.
(Of course there may not be a war in Iraq but even if that is the case there seems to be a general UN concensus that he is going to disarmed one way or another).
