Get out now, page-54

RIO and BHP are the only two who I think will survive the iron ore glut..

I can see why any reasonable fundamental analysis would come to that conclusion. But its not about fundamental analysis. FMG went to $13 when it wasn't much more than a dream. And $2.80 after it was producing. There is no way fundamental analysis could predict either of those results. I'm not saying it doesn't have a place, but it is only one of many factors that influence the price, and its not the biggest by any means.

The only companies that trade mainly on fundamental analysis are some utilities, and index funds.

I don't know where FMG is going but I do know it is not going out of business. Its obvious here that some of the fundamentalists were not around in the days of Robert Holmes a Court, (took on BHP) or Alan Bond, (took on the world) or Laurie Connell, or Rene Rivkin. (owned disallowed), John Prescott, (wrecked BHP), Paul Anderson (saved BHP), Bob Joss, (saved Westpac form the knackery)...and so on. All had dramatic influence on their companies through periods when the fundamentals did not change much.

If it was all about fundamentals, the university graduates would scoop the pool. One of my mentors in my early market days was a very private gentleman who amassed an $80m fortune from his garage, when $80m was big money. A very smart uneducated man.

I'm not having a go at anyone here, - I've been around too long for that, - but I have seen many highly qualified people at a complete loss to understand why their formal education does not tranlsate to stock market success. Head scratching at first, and then the penny drops...its all about putting in the work, and studying what makes individual companies tick.