Golly Madam...I thought you worked previously in the VC sector and surely developments within a specific industry sector would be of interest when analysing investment possibilities? No-one is suggesting that a price paid for one technology or drug owned by another company is a reliable guide to the value of a different product, but, it is an indication of industry trends, and it stands to reason that a potential product in Ph 3 trials is worth intrinsically more than a product in Ph 2 testing.
I understand from contacts in the industry that work done by Tufts University in the US is used as a scale to determine valuations of products through the various stages of development and this scale basically estimates the probability of success, and conversely the likelihood of failure, at each stage of the development process. Basically, a Ph 1 trial is given a 28% chance of success, a Ph 2 trial 50% chance, and a Ph 3 trial, a 70% chance of success.
Placing a valuation on any new drug or process is an imperfect science of course, as there are so many different factors which could affect the worth of that product to a potential purchaser, be it strategic or a range of other factors. Nevertheless, I happened to come across a table produced in June 2014 by a group called Evaluate Pharma, which ranks the 20 most valuable R & D projects in NPV terms. MSB's Revascor programme ranks No 11 with an NPV OF $4.33bn. Other companies in the ranking include Merck, Bristol Myers, Roche, Novartis, Pfizer and Gilead. Different applications for the MSB's stem cell technology will naturally have different valuations accorded to them, due to the size of the potential market, but, those sort of valuations are out there.
I don't really understand your snide comment on Cephalon either, as if Teva was unhappy with the deal, it would most certainly have been discarded following their cleaning out of the stables after the acquisition! In fact, if anything, Cephalon's decision has been further validated by the NIH's decision to fund and conduct a 120 patient study in end stage heart failure. Further independent confirmation of the potential of MSB's position!
And I agree with you on your profound sentiments regarding hope and investment but from where I sit, MSB has a little more than hope going for it!
Good luck (oops! Maybe I shouldn't introduce luck into the equation?)
MSB Price at posting:
$4.18 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)